Daily Rushes

Here at Daily Rushes we're shining our shoes, picking out our best Bob Massey headwear and rustling up our Oscars bingo cards ("honor just to be nominated," "girl from a trailer park," "Harvey Weinstein," BINGO!) because IT'S AWARD SEASON, Y'ALL!

POSSIBLY ILL-ADVISED EARLY PREDICTION #1: Milk will win Best Picture.

While everyone else has been putting their money on Slumdog Millionaire, Daily Rushes has had 30 maths nerds working day and night, each paid with thirty peanuts, a Troop Beverly Hills DVD and the promise of Oscarblog glory, who've poured through the research data and all of Three 6 Mafia's back catalogue to arrive at this foolproof algorithm:

M = B-C/b+p(2)+J(z)k/W

Where:

M = Milk wins

B = Number of Best Picture trophies Milk has taken out (One: New York Film Critics)

C = Number of Best Picture trophies Slumdog has taken out (Two: National Board of Review, British Independent Film Awards)

b = Prop 8 topicality and liberal Hollywood guilt arising from Brokeback snub, (hereafter known as The Incident,) with said snub attributable to homophobic octogenarian Oscar voters who have since moved on to the great Dorothy Chandler Pavillion in the sky.

p = Stellar cast with establishment heavies (Penn), rising middleweights (Brolin), indie darlings (Luna, Hirsch), and one surprise heartthrob breakout (Franco).

J = Producers Guild of America's Stanley Kramer Award (which honors pictures for taking on 'provocative social issues'; see "b",) with Producers Guild a reliable indicator of Oscar glory, notwithstanding the Little Miss Sunshine misfire of 2004.

z = Desire to reward Gus Van Sant for returning to semi-commercial Hollywood fare with conventional plot, character and continuity (cf Good Will Hunting) with nary a big-thumbed cowgirl or snow-walkin' Gerry to be seen.

k = Homeground advantage for Real American Van Sant vs British interloper Danny Boyle.

W = Ten bonus Billy Crystal points for biopic.